The Contrafabulists – Kin Lane and Audrey Watters – monitor predictions that technologists and marketers make about the future of technology. No surprise, most of the predictions are made about AI, a development whose future folks have been predicting incorrectly since the 1950s.
Here are the predictions made this week:
Ray Kurzweil told the Council for Foreign Relations last week that “humans and machines will merge within 20 years.”
The New York Times Magazine predicts a not-quite-driverless future: “The Rev-Up: Imagining a 20% Self-Driving World.”
“Everyone will have 5 years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap,” says Automative News.
“What will universities look like in 2030?” asks Times Higher Education. Robots. Or something.
According to the annual Campus Climate Report, university CIOs believe “OER will storm campuses in next 5 years.”
Via Techcrunch: “Voice-enabled smart speakers to reach 55% of U.S. households by 2022, says report.”
According to Bloomberg, Apple is working on an augmented reality headset that could ship in 2020.
“We’ll see flying cars in the mass market in around 10–15 years,” says Techcrunch.
Donald Clark gives ten reasons why 47% of jobs won’t be automated in the future. (He thinks it’s going to be 10–20%.)
There’s no date on this, but The Atlantic frets, “What Happens If China Makes First Contact?”
GeekWire’s Frank Catalano does what so few fortune-tellers ever do – he revisits predictions he made many years ago: “25 years ago, I predicted the future of media and tech — here’s how I did.”
At the beginning of 2018, Kin and Audrey will gather all the predictions about 2018 and then at the end of the year, we’ll see how folks did. Call them out. Maybe call them up. “Hi. This is Audrey. You were wrong. I told you so. Bye.”