The ContrafabulistsKin Lane and Audrey Watters – monitor predictions that technologists and marketers make about the future of technology. No surprise, most of the predictions are made about AI, a development whose future folks have been predicting incorrectly since the 1950s.

Here are the predictions made this week:

He made the same prediction 5 years ago and Clayton Christensen is back at it again. Via CNBC: “Harvard Business School professor: Half of American colleges will be bankrupt in 10 to 15 years.” Why, it’s almost like there are zero repercussions for making up bullshit predictions about the future and just repeating them on stage for the rest of your life. (Incidentally, according to statistics released by the NCES this summer, the number of postsecondary institutions increased by 10% from 2000 to 2014.)

There were a lot of predictions this week about flying cars, another prediction that folks have been making for decades. Via Motor Authority: “Terrafugia sold to Geely, promises flying car by 2019.” “By 2019 you could be flying a car to work,” says USA Today. “Fasten your seatbelt – Uber is hoping to make flying taxis a reality by 2020,” says Mashable. (I love it that this prediction is one year later than the others. Like, all the suckers who buy flying cars in 2019 have to turn to the gig economy the following year to make their car payments.)

GM says it will make electric cars – profitable electric cars – by 2021.

And this article is a couple weeks old, but I’m including it because of its great headline. Alex Usher on a report about the future of work from Deloitte: “A Report So Stupid Only a ‘Thought Leader’ Could Have Written It.”

Audrey Watters


Predictions: The History of the Future

A Contrafabulists Production

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